Human rights and Hong Kong

  • Intensity of disputes generally high but steady
  • Key points of dispute:
    • China’s human rights abuses against ethnic and religious minorities and Australia’s public criticisms of the Chinese government’s policies (e.g., this)
    • China’s abrogation of Hong Kong’s rights and freedoms and the heavy-handed use of martial force in the Special Administrative Region and Australia’s public criticisms of these Chinese and Hong Kong government policies (e.g., this)
    • China’s suppression of freedom of speech and other fundamental human rights and Australia’s public criticisms of these policies (e.g., this and this)
  • Possible triggers for an increase in intensity:
    • Australia levelling targeted sanctions against Chinese officials in response to human rights abuses in Xinjiang
    • A further deterioration of human rights conditions in China and/or Hong Kong or new revelations of past human rights abuses

Longstanding regional security disputes

  • Intensity of disputes generally high but steady
  • Key points of dispute:
    • Australia’s strong opposition to China’s legally untenable maritime claims in the South China Sea (e.g., this and this)
    • Deepening exchange and cooperation among Quad countries on a range of political, diplomatic, economic, cyber, infrastructure, and maritime fronts (e.g., this)
    • China’s growing military, diplomatic, economic, and related efforts to isolate and intimidate Taiwan and Australia’s support for the cross-Strait status quo (e.g., this)
  • Possible triggers for an increase in intensity:
    • An Australian Defence Force (ADF) aircraft or vessel transiting within 12 nautical miles of a Chinese-claimed feature in the South China Sea
    • Regular unsafe intercepts of ADF aircrafts or vessels by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
    • The evolution of the Quad to include branded joint military exercises

New regional security disputes

  • Intensity of disputes generally high and increasing
  • Key points of dispute:
    • Cooperation between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States to provide the Royal Australian Navy with nuclear-powered submarines as part of the AUKUS security partnership (e.g., this and this)
    • Expanding US military force posture in Australia, including the rotational deployment of US B-52 bombers (e.g., this)
    • The China-Solomon Islands security agreement and deepening security cooperation between Honiara and Beijing (e.g., this)
    • China’s ambition to play an active security role in the Pacific and Australia’s view that Pacific security is a matter for the region (e.g., this)
  • Possible triggers for a further increase in intensity:
    • The operationalisation of the China-Solomon Islands security agreement to facilitate a PLA Navy port visit to Solomon Islands
    • Increasingly explicit statements from the Australian government that AUKUS submarines are intended to deliver a deterrent effect in North Asia, including in the Taiwan Strait

National security

  • Intensity of disputes generally high but steady
  • Key points of dispute:
    • Australian legislation and policies to combat foreign interference in its politics and society, including counterintelligence and transparency measures (e.g., this and this)
    • The introduction of Australia’s Foreign Relations Act 2020 (FRA) and the associated Foreign Arrangements Scheme combined with the Australian federal government’s subsequent use of FRA powers to render invalid and unenforceable Victoria’s Belt and Road Initiative agreements (e.g., this, this, and this)
    • Chinese state and state-affiliated cyberattacks against Australian companies, universities, and government institutions and the Australian government’s growing willingness to attribute these attacks to China and its proxies (e.g., this)
  • Possible triggers for an increase in intensity:
    • The Minister for Foreign Affairs using FRA powers to render invalid and unenforceable agreements establishing Confucius Institutes at Australian universities
    • Additional large-scale Chinese state or state-affiliated cyberattacks against significant Australian institutions and a formal and public Australian government attribution in response

Consular cases and border control

  • Intensity of disputes generally moderate and steady
  • Key points of dispute:
    • The ongoing detention of Cheng Lei, Yang Hengjun, and other Australians (e.g., this and this)
    • The questioning of Chinese journalists in Australia and the intimidation of Australian journalists in China in 2020 (e.g., this and this)
    • The cancelation of Chinese scholars’ visas on security grounds in 2020 (e.g., this)
  • Possible triggers for an increase in intensity:
    • China detaining additional Australian citizens
    • New Australian investigations of and visa restrictions against Chinese nationals on espionage or foreign interference grounds

Economic statecraft

  • Intensity of disputes generally high but steady
  • Key points of dispute:
    • Adverse ministerial and Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) decisions regarding investments from Chinese companies (e.g., this)
    • The growing role of national security considerations in Australia’s evaluation of foreign investments (e.g., this)
    • The exclusion of Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE as vendors for the construction of Australia’s 5G network in 2018 and the earlier exclusion of Huawei from National Broadband Network tenders (e.g., this)
  • Possible triggers for an increase in intensity:
    • Rejection of a large Chinese investment by the Australian Treasurer or FIRB
    • An adverse finding in the review of the 99-year lease of Darwin Port by the Chinese company Landbridge

COVID-19

  • Intensity of disputes generally moderate and slowly declining
  • Key points of dispute:
    • The Australian government publicly and unilaterally calling for an inquiry into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020 (e.g., this)
    • The Australian government’s subsequent efforts to generate international support for an inquiry in the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g., this)
  • Possible triggers for an increase in intensity:
    • Currently seems unlikely given the time elapsed since the global COVID-19 outbreak